The UCLA Anderson School of Business released it’s Commercial Real Estate forecast last week and the news is not very optimistic, but I suspect it is realistic.Â Essentially, the report states that the markets are likely to adjust in 2010, but until that point, things will continue to be depressed.
Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey Reveals California Office Markets will Continue to Deteriorate Through 2011 Turning point in the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets expected in 2010 LOS ANGELES — In the wake of the recession and the freezing up of financial markets for office space development, developers and investors believe that office markets will worsen between now and 2011, according to the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project. The survey now includes the East Bay and Silicon Valley office markets in addition to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Orange County and San Diego.Â The survey, conducted for the fourth time in two years, compares the panel’s forecast of the market three years hence with today’s market.
“The unexpected autumnal freeze in commercial real estate credit markets and the precipitous drop in retail sales changed the outlook for new office projects dramatically,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast, and author of the survey results report. “The dynamics in the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets indicate a turning point at the end of 2010.Â For the Silicon Valley it appears that 2011 is a turning point, but the data is less clear.Â For the balance of the markets, the surveys clearly indicate a longer term adjustment process.”
For a copy of the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project, please visit www.uclaforecast.com.
The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project polled a panel of California real estate professionals in the office space and investment market, and asked a series of questions on various aspects of the commercial real estate market. It was initiated by Allen Matkins in 2006, furtherance of their interest in improving the quality of current information and forecasts of commercial real estate. With the office market coverage now complete, the next survey will focus on the Industrial Space market at the June 2009 UCLA Anderson Forecast Conference.